Kazakhstan parliamentary elections begin: What’s at stake?

Kazakhstan heads to the polls this week in a snap parliamentary election that is expected to strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s rule over the country.  The last parliamentary elections were in 2023.

The election comes just weeks after Kazakhstan, a nation of 21 million that borders Russia and China, revamped its legislative system by introducing constitutional changes and shifting from a dual-chamber parliament to a single-chamber one as it seeks to assert itself as a major democratic power in Central Asia.

How does the election process work and what’s at stake?

Here’s what we know:

When is the election happening?

Elections for the 145 seats of the Kurultai, the country’s new unicameral legislature, will take place on August 23.

To enter government, parties must receive at least 5 percent of the overall vote.

Before July 1, when Kazakhstan’s new constitutional system came into effect, the parliament was bicameral, with the Mazhilis (lower house) and Senate (upper house). On the day the new system came into effect, President Tokayev signed a decree calling the snap election.

According to national media outlet Astana Times, under the previous system, “legislation passed through the Mazhilis before moving to the Senate. Under the new model, the Kurultai concentrates legislative consideration, and adopted laws are then sent to the President.”

Under the new constitutional system, presidents will only be permitted to serve a single, seven-year term. However, when his current, second term as president is up, Tokayev will be able to run for a third seven-year term of office, since the introduction of the new legislature resets his time in office.

He won the last presidential election, in 2022, with more than 80 percent of the vote, having run largely unchallenged, as all five of his competitors were unknowns.

International observers will attend the parliamentary election on Sunday.

The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly announced last week that nearly 80 parliamentarians and staff from about 30 countries would be deployed to observe the election.

Who is contesting in this year’s election?

Seven political parties are fielding candidates in this year’s elections.

These include the newly formed Adilet party, Auyl, Aq Jol, the People’s Party of Kazakhstan, the Nationwide Social Democratic Party, Baytaq, and Respublica.

Amanat, the party that has dominated Kazakh politics under various names since the 1990s, officially voted to dissolve itself into Adilet – which means “Justice” – a new party led by top aides to Tokayev, in June this year, largely to distance itself from Amanat’s former leader, the previous President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Nazarbayev, who was once close to Tokayev and considered his mentor, was the country’s president from 1991 to 2019. While he led economic modernisation of the country, his rule was defined by corruption, civil unrest and authoritarianism. He was elected president five times in widely criticised votes.

In the run-up to the election on Sunday, Adilet has been running on the campaign message of “Just Kazakhstan”, pledging to raise household incomes, strengthen the country’s economy and improve public services, infrastructure and digitalisation.

Around Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, election posters – mostly in support of Adilet – have been ubiquitous for weeks, the Reuters news agency reported.

Opinion polls suggest the new party is likely to win a large majority of the vote, with a number of smaller opposition parties, which analysts also consider broadly loyal to Tokayev, also likely to enter parliament.

The Aq Jol Democratic Party is running on a campaign pledging support for entrepreneurship, while the Auyl party is advocating for stronger rural communities and the Baytaq Green Party is campaigning on the environment.

Kazakh political analyst Rustam Burnashev told Reuters that while this snap election offers Tokayev a chance to remove figures associated with his predecessor, Nazarbayev, from the political stage, major reform of the political system is unlikely.

Despite the new Adilet party having been formed to distance itself from Nazarbayev’s legacy, analysts say little is likely to change materially.

“All the parliamentary candidates are known,” Burnashev said. “Nor can one say that the parliament itself will be a transformative one.”

Although Kazakhstan has enjoyed rapid economic growth in recent years, tax rises and inflation have hit living standards.

Atapsha, a fruit seller who declined to give his full name, told Reuters that he would cast a vote, but without any particular expectations.

“I am 73 years old. I’ve been waiting for things to get better for 73 years, but so far, nothing has really worked out. Still, I hope that this year things will finally improve.”

What’s at stake?

In 2022, Tokayev launched the “New Kazakhstan” package of reforms for the political system. A referendum was held on the legislative changes, which came in in July.

Analysts say the upcoming elections will determine if the country’s new leaders can adhere to the renewed unicameral legislature and uphold its foreign policy.

Besides these changes in the country’s legislative makeup, the elections come at a time when Astana is trying to showcase itself as a democracy and key power in Central Asia.

To this end, Tokayev has focused on revamping the country’s infrastructure and economy and expanding ties with both China and the European Union.

The country has also been beefing up relations with the United States in recent years. Last November, Kazakhstan signed a $4.2bn agreement with the US locomotive parts maker Wabtec. According to the US Department of Commerce, the deal will provide Kazakhstan with 300 kits to build locomotives for the Kazakh national rail company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy.

US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to trumpet the deal, referring to it as “the largest Railroad Equipment Purchase in History”.

Traditionally close to Russia, the country has preferred to play a neutral role in Moscow’s war on Ukraine and has called for peace. It has also offered itself as a venue for peace talks in the US-Iran war.

In an article published in April by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School, Nargis Kassenova wrote: “Kazakhstan has begun positioning itself as a middle power.”

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.5 percent to about US$335bn in 2025 compared with last year, using the consumption method of calculations.

“While a ‘lightweight’ by conventional standards, it has assets that make it significant for the rest of the world. Its geostrategic location at the heart of Eurasia makes it both an important connector and buffer between Europe, Russia, the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia. It is also a regional leader in Central Asia,” she wrote.

Oil-rich Kazakhstan accounts for about 2 percent of the daily world oil supply, with the bulk of its exports shipped to European countries via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to Russia’s port of Novorossiysk. The pipeline and tankers serving it have periodically come under attack by Ukrainian drones, causing disruptions in exports.