Conflict over Taiwan would be disastrous, de facto US ambassador warns

The United States remains Taiwan’s main international backer and arms supplier despite lack of formal diplomatic ties.

The top US diplomat in Taipei has warned that any conflict across the Taiwan Strait would have a bigger impact on the global economy than World War II, just weeks before Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to travel to Washington.

Speaking at a defence forum in Taipei on Wednesday, Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, said there was no topic more timely or important than how to secure peace in the Taiwan Strait, adding that the upcoming US-China summit is an opportunity to avoid miscalculations.

Xi Jinping is expected to travel to the United States later this month to meet with President Donald Trump.

“The upcoming US-China summit is an opportunity to further advance a relationship of strategic stability, on the basis of fairness and reciprocity, that can avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations,” Greene added.

While the US, like most countries, has no formal diplomatic relations with Chinese-claimed Taiwan, it is the democratically governed island’s most important international backer and arms supplier.

“Beyond the human toll, any conflict across the Taiwan Strait would have a bigger impact on the global economy than the second world war,” Greene said.

“The United States under the Trump administration has made preserving peace in the Indo-Pacific one of its top priorities,” he added.

That includes “vigorous” diplomacy, especially at the highest levels, he said.

Greene said that the US was also reinforcing its presence and partnerships in the Asia Pacific to maintain a “favourable regional balance of power”.

“Third, and especially relevant to today’s discussion, we are supporting Taiwan’s work to enhance its ability to defend itself,” he said.

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te’s administration has made stepped-up defence spending and military modernisation priorities, citing the threat level from China.

The government, which rejects Beijing’s claims to the island, has budgeted defence spending for next year to exceed 1 trillion Taiwan dollars ($31.76bn) for the first time.