Hormuz ship attacks surge: Are increased oil exports sustainable?

Oil exports from the Gulf have resumed significantly in recent days, despite a surge in attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz, maritime experts and trackers say.

Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, while crude exports from the wider Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days during the month, maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported.

However, the recovery has come as attacks on tankers increase and shipping companies face higher freight, insurance and security costs.

On Tuesday, 12 crew members on a Panama-flagged tanker were injured in an attack by an unknown projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

Before the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day and shipments through it accounted for about 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies.

In retaliation for US-Israeli attacks, Iran effectively closed the strait, while Washington has maintained a blockade on Iranian ports.

So, how are ships getting through the strait, and how long can producers maintain the increased flow through one of the world’s most important energy corridors while attacks and harassment of ships continue?

What do we know about the recent attacks on ships?

The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has continued to deteriorate even as more oil moves out of the region.

At least seven incidents involving tankers have been reported in the past week, according to shipping intelligence service Marisks.

The Kuwaiti-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) MT Kazimah III caught fire after being struck on October 1 while travelling through the strait, causing a fire on board. Five staff were safely rescued following the incident.

On October 4, the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was struck northeast of Oman’s Jazirat Umm al-Fayarin, damaging its engine room, with no casualties reported.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden, where Iran-backed Houthis are targeting Saudi-linked shipping, since October 2.

Threats continued on Monday, when a tanker entering the Hormuz strait near Oman was hailed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ordered to turn around or risk attack, according to UKMTO.

How much oil is getting through the Hormuz Strait?

Despite those attacks, oil exports from the region have risen dramatically.

According to provisional data from Kpler, the seven-day moving average for Middle East crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 30, compared with an average of about 18 million bpd during the 12 months before the war.

Vortexa separately estimated that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports had reached 18.6 million bpd.

However, not all of that oil is actually being shipped through Hormuz.

Kpler estimates that about 40 percent of oil exports now bypass the strait, while much of the crude that does cross is transferred between tankers offshore.

Partly as a result of the increased oil exports, oil prices continue to fall, with Brent crude – the global benchmark – dropping 0.75 percent to $99.57 a barrel on Tuesday. US West Texas Intermediate crude also fell 1.2 percent to $88.37 a barrel, according to data from Oilprice.com.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly taken credit for the apparent increase in oil flows, boasting that Washington controls the strait and that US forces were succeeding in protecting vessels passing through Hormuz.

Iran has disputed claims that oil flow through the key waterway has increased, saying the amount passing was “negligible” and that it still has effective control of the strait.

How are oil exports bypassing Hormuz?

The recovery of oil exports has been made possible largely by Saudi Arabia’s use of alternative export infrastructure and an increasingly complex system for moving crude around Hormuz.

“The increasing availability of crude oil from the Middle East is due to two factors: the effective use of the East-West pipeline by Saudi Arabia and ship-to-ship transfer around the Strait of Hormuz,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told Al Jazeera.

Saudi’s East-West pipeline carries oil from fields in the east of the country to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea in the West.

Ship-to-ship transfers happen when smaller shuttle boats, which often turn off their transponders to make them hard to detect, physically transport oil through the Strait of Hormuz, before offloading their cargoes onto larger tankers waiting just beyond it.

Is this sustainable?

Varga said current flows could be maintained as long as those methods and routes remain secure.

Saudi’s East-West pipeline has already suffered temporary closures as a result of drone strikes, such as those launched by Iran-backed groups in Iraq in September.

“The flow will be sustainable unless attacks on ships and shipping lanes or on the pipeline resume, something that does not seem imminent at the moment but could happen at any time if geopolitical tensions flare up,” he said.

But maintaining those flows is also putting pressure on the shipping system.

“The shuttle system in the Gulf is doing wonders in getting oil out, but it requires plenty of ships,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera.

That demand has pushed freight costs higher and reduced tanker availability elsewhere, while Asian buyers are increasingly having to source crude from further afield, he added.

“Previously a supply story, this is now one about the underlying mechanics of shipping,” Beauchamp said. “Ships don’t get built overnight.”

Varga said oil prices also remain comparatively high – currently hovering just less than $100 a barrel compared with around $72 before the war broke out – because of increased shipping and insurance costs.

Last week, members of the Group of Seven (G7) announced they would release up to 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, including diesel, in a bid to control prices. Further releases of crude and diesel from strategic reserves could also ease prices, but with global inventories already thin, another deterioration in Middle East security could quickly push them higher again.

“Only a sustainable and credible peace deal between the US and Iran and the subsequent permanent and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would re-establish the pre-conflict status quo,” Varga said.

On Monday, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the effects of the disruption could last well beyond the reopening of Hormuz, even if it does happen.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence conference in London, Nasser said nearly three billion barrels of oil supply had been lost since the conflict began at the end of February and that rebuilding depleted inventories while meeting demand could take as long as two years.

“The system is already straining,” he added.