The storm is forecast to strike Florida, Alabama and Mississippi with up to 10 inches of rain this weekend.
Published On 8 Oct 2026
Hurricane Isaias has intensified into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season as it barrels over record-warm water toward the northern shoreline of the United States Gulf Coast, prompting school closures and local government shutdowns.
According to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center, the storm is forecast to make landfall in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi late Friday or early Saturday. The low-lying areas are especially vulnerable to flooding and storm surges.
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The center warned residents in likely impact zones on Thursday to complete all emergency life-safety and property protections without delay.
It has also issued a hurricane watch from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, through Indian Pass in the northwestern part of Florida in anticipation of torrential downpours and the substantial risk of localised flash and urban flooding.
A rainfall total of 3-6 inches is forecast with isolated peaks up to 10 inches.
“We are expecting Isaias to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall,” Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a Thursday morning update, adding that he expects “up to near-major hurricane strength” by Friday as the storm pounds north of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.
On Thursday morning, Isaias was packing maximum sustained winds of nearly 130km/h (80mph) with higher gusts. Heavy rain and flash flooding also threaten the inland areas throughout the weekend, extending as far as the Tennessee Valley and potentially encompassing a broad stretch from the inland southeast up through the southern Appalachian Mountains.
Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the US Gulf, which accounts for almost 15 percent of crude pumped annually in the US.
As of Wednesday, about 25 percent of the oil production in the region had been temporarily halted, taking about 511,000 barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said eight of the Gulf’s 371 manned oil platforms had been evacuated.
With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.
When Isaias was first declared a hurricane on Wednesday, it marked the latest date for an Atlantic season’s first hurricane in 121 years, falling just short of the record set in 1905, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The season normally runs from June 1 through November 30.