Met Office predicts ‘unprecedented’ sea surface temperature rise of 3C (5.4F) plus will heighten extreme weather risks.
Published On 21 Aug 2026
The impact of this year’s El Nino event is expected to be the most intense in more than a century, United Kingdom forecasters have warned.
The effect of the event will drive the risk of drought, high temperatures, intense rainfall and other extreme weather effects, the Met Office said in a statement issued on Friday.
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Typically, El Nino leads sea surface temperatures to rise between 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). However, forecasts for the 2026 version predict record values of more than 3C (5.4F) in the coming months, the forecasters said.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Adam Scaife, head of the office’s long-range forecasting. “I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.”
If the spike plays out as anticipated, “then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences”, he added.
The chief forecaster separately told the BBC that the three-degree rise was “unheard-of in modern climate records”.
El Nino is triggered by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing global weather patterns.
Governments around the world are already grappling with historic climate events so far this year.
Wildfires have burned through more than 200,000 hectares (494,200 acres) in Indonesia and rampaged across southwestern Europe, forcing the displacement of at least 325,000 people in Spain and France. Other countries are dealing with severe droughts.
The Met Office said El Nino will spawn wetter, stormier conditions in northwestern Europe, including the UK, as autumn and winter arrive in the Northern Hemisphere.
Particularly strong effects are expected throughout the Tropics, Scaife said, “where we expect really severe droughts in places like South America, and the West Pacific”.
In mid-August, the UK recorded its hottest day of the year as the temperature in west London climbed to 38.1C (100.5F), beating the previous high of 38C (100.4F) in June.
Combined with the effects of human-induced climate change, the Met Office warned that the event is “very likely” to make 2027 the hottest year on record globally.